The 10-year Treasury yield has declined at a rapid pace. Economic fundamentals still look sound, even as yields send cautious signals. Investors around the world have rushed into Treasuries for income, safety, and liquidity
Our Five Forecasters collectively point to economic growth ahead. Leading indicators are still rising, but the pace has slowed recently. Yield curve inversion looks manageable given positive signs from other indicators.
Worrisome signals from the bond market contributed to stocks’ first monthly decline of 2019. While we expect rates to end the year solidly above current levels, until we get some good news on the trade front, rates are likely to remain stubbornly low. If rates reverse higher as we expect, stocks may enjoy some tailwinds.
Our Five Forecasters are collectively indicating that further economic growth and stock market gains appear likely. This economic cycle is about to turn 10 years old, but we see reasons it can continue. We take a look at market breadth and stock valuations.